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jannepyykko

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Posts: 39
Reply with quote  #1 
Statistical methods + visual data analysis used to reveal frauds in several US elections 2008-2012:

http://www.ukprogressive.co.uk/breaking-retired-nsa-analyst-proves-gop-is-stealing-elections/article20598.html

Available also a more profound report written by Francois Choquette and James Johnson [link].

In the report about the election fraud: Votes for a particular candidate can be exchanged (flipped) from another candidate in a particular precinct. This can best be done electronically. There are two advantages to perform vote flipping in precincts with larger vote tallies. First, this risky operation will have bigger impact on the final result if conducted in “large” precincts (measured by the vote tally), since more votes can be flipped per precinct, and, therefore, the number of flipped precincts can be reduced, while keeping the target total vote for this candidate fixed. Second, detection in larger precincts is more difficult. If voters detect fraud in a small precinct, they can easily get together, sign affidavits, and file a lawsuit. For example, if a precinct records only two votes for a candidate, while five friends from this precinct voted together for that candidate, the fraud becomes trivially detectable.

In the report about visual analysis: We plot this [election] data on a new type of chart that helps visualize the particular anomaly we wish to expose. These charts are named “Cumulative Vote Tally” charts and relate the candidate % success as a function of the summation of votes from small to large precincts.



Regards,
-Janne

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-- Mr. Janne Pyykkö, Espoo, Finland, Europe
grasshopper

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Posts: 245
Reply with quote  #2 
The first thing that I notice is that these guys don't choose good/descriptive titles for their graphs
(for example, I first thought this was a comparison to votes in the year 1774, based on the title).

Sloppy or confusing graph labeling immediately reduces the trust & credibility I put in a graph.

(ps, I'm neither republican nor democrat, so hopefully I'm looking at this with an open mind)
jannepyykko

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Posts: 39
Reply with quote  #3 
Grasshopper, you are correct. Another thing in this particular chart is wrong, because there is no info what is the black line? Well, perhaps it is "Other", since in the legend there is a brown line "Other" that doesn't exist in the chart.

In any case, I took this chart only as an example among the numerous other charts presented in the pdf report that you can download above (or here). Of course, the chart is only the top of the iceberg (the final proof) -- the iceberg being the statistical method to explore Amazing Statistical Anomalies in Republican Primary Election 2012 Results (=the title of the report).

I read the whole report and I think they could have used another chart type as well to clarify their point of election fraud. They could have used a scatter chart with two axis: X = size of precinct measured by the vote tally, Y = candidate % success in a precinct. When candidates have different colors, the color spread in the chart should be kind of flat for every candidate, if elections are fair (not having any direction up or down from left to right). In this case, however, the scatter chart would have shown increasing number of candidate % success for Romney from left to right -- thus clarifying the point that something is wrong and needs an explanation.

Nevertheless, I think they didn't chose scatter graph, because that doesn't tell who won the election. By using a cumulative vote tally in their chart, they can show both who won and the fraud itself in the same graph -- thus making me think their choice is reasonable.

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-- Mr. Janne Pyykkö, Espoo, Finland, Europe
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